Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 15.9k | 24.5% |
Bondeförbundet | 14.1k | 21.7% |
Folkpartiet | 13.8k | 21.2% |
Högerpartiet | 13.4k | 20.7% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 7.7k | 11.9% |
Why SE_NOR voters lean toward Rolf Holmberg over Birgitta Sundstrom. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Birgitta Sundstrom's vote can be persuaded across to Rolf Holmberg, and 20.0% of Rolf Holmberg's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.