Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 127.7k | 23.6% |
Folkpartiet | 122.4k | 22.6% |
Ulf AxelssonNPP Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 116.4k | 21.5% |
Högerpartiet | 99.6k | 18.4% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 75.7k | 14.0% |
Why SE_SKA voters lean toward Kristina Jonsson over Erik Bengtsson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Erik Bengtsson's vote can be persuaded across to Kristina Jonsson, and 20.0% of Kristina Jonsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.