Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 139.8k | 23.3% |
Högerpartiet | 131.3k | 21.9% |
Ulf AxelssonNPP Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 120.1k | 20.0% |
Folkpartiet | 111.2k | 18.6% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 96.9k | 16.2% |
Why SE_SKA voters lean toward Ulf Axelsson over Marcus Dahlberg. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Marcus Dahlberg's vote can be persuaded across to Ulf Axelsson, and 20.0% of Ulf Axelsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.