Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 13.0k | 27.8% |
Ulf AxelssonNPP Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 10.6k | 22.8% |
Folkpartiet | 9.5k | 20.3% |
Högerpartiet | 7.5k | 16.0% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 6.1k | 13.1% |
Why SE_SKA voters lean toward Ulf Axelsson over Kristina Jonsson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Kristina Jonsson's vote can be persuaded across to Ulf Axelsson, and 20.0% of Ulf Axelsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.