Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 103.6k | 25.8% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 94.4k | 23.5% |
Folkpartiet | 85.1k | 21.2% |
Högerpartiet | 68.2k | 17.0% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 49.9k | 12.4% |
Why SE_SML voters lean toward Kjell Jansson over Kristina Svensson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Kristina Svensson's vote can be persuaded across to Kjell Jansson, and 20.0% of Kjell Jansson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.