Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
38 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 16,119 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 38 were settled on largest remainder.
Why SE_SML voters lean toward Eva Magnusson over Marianne Persson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Marianne Persson's vote can be persuaded across to Eva Magnusson, and 20.0% of Eva Magnusson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.