Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Högerpartiet | 100.5k | 22.9% |
Bondeförbundet | 99.3k | 22.6% |
Folkpartiet | 83.9k | 19.1% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 80.5k | 18.4% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 74.5k | 17.0% |
Why SE_SML voters lean toward Oskar Jonsson over Helena Gustafsson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Helena Gustafsson's vote can be persuaded across to Oskar Jonsson, and 20.0% of Oskar Jonsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.