Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 8.8k | 26.3% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 6.4k | 18.9% |
Folkpartiet | 6.3k | 18.6% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 6.2k | 18.5% |
Högerpartiet | 5.9k | 17.7% |
Why SE_SML voters lean toward Kristina Svensson over Kjell Jansson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Kjell Jansson's vote can be persuaded across to Kristina Svensson, and 20.0% of Kristina Svensson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.