Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 182.3k | 22.8% |
Högerpartiet | 169.6k | 21.2% |
Folkpartiet | 167.8k | 21.0% |
Marcus HolmNPP Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 151.2k | 18.9% |
Bo IsakssonNPP Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 127.6k | 16.0% |
Why SE_STH voters lean toward Marcus Holm over Solveig Jansson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Solveig Jansson's vote can be persuaded across to Marcus Holm, and 20.0% of Marcus Holm's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.