Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 76.9k | 25.2% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 66.0k | 21.6% |
Folkpartiet | 62.7k | 20.5% |
Högerpartiet | 54.5k | 17.8% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 45.5k | 14.9% |
Why SE_UPP voters lean toward Axel Blomqvist over Thomas Danielsson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Thomas Danielsson's vote can be persuaded across to Axel Blomqvist, and 20.0% of Axel Blomqvist's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.