Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 78.5k | 23.0% |
Högerpartiet | 77.3k | 22.7% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 70.1k | 20.6% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 60.8k | 17.9% |
Folkpartiet | 53.8k | 15.8% |
Why SE_UPP voters lean toward Anders Sandberg over Barbro Karlsson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Barbro Karlsson's vote can be persuaded across to Anders Sandberg, and 20.0% of Anders Sandberg's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.