Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
34 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 16,038 votes buys one seat; 4 of the 34 were settled on largest remainder.
Why SE_VML voters lean toward Arne Berg over Patrik Bergqvist. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Patrik Bergqvist's vote can be persuaded across to Arne Berg, and 20.0% of Arne Berg's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.