Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 111.5k | 27.5% |
Bondeförbundet | 102.5k | 25.3% |
Högerpartiet | 72.5k | 17.9% |
Folkpartiet | 60.2k | 14.8% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 59.0k | 14.6% |
Why SE_VML voters lean toward Thomas Olsson over Linda Svensson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Linda Svensson's vote can be persuaded across to Thomas Olsson, and 20.0% of Thomas Olsson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.