Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Bondeförbundet | 105.1k | 23.3% |
Högerpartiet | 100.9k | 22.3% |
Folkpartiet | 85.5k | 18.9% |
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti | 80.4k | 17.8% |
Sveriges Kommunistiska Parti | 79.5k | 17.6% |
Why SE_VML voters lean toward Tommy Bergman over Per Bengtsson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Per Bengtsson's vote can be persuaded across to Tommy Bergman, and 20.0% of Tommy Bergman's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.