Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 830.0k | 29.9% | 24 | |
| 570.7k | 20.6% | 17 | |
Labour Party | 402.9k | 14.5% | 12 |
| 387.0k | 13.9% | 11 | |
The Conservative and Unionist Party | 298.0k | 10.7% | 9 |
T Tom CooperNPP Scottish National Party | 180.9k | 6.5% | 0 |
| 57.9k | 2.1% | 2 | |
Eilidh WhiteNPP Liberal Party | 46.9k | 1.7% | 0 |
Why LON voters lean toward Ben Ahmed over Gareth Williams. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Gareth Williams's vote can be persuaded across to Ben Ahmed, and 20.0% of Ben Ahmed's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.