Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06M | 38.9% | 39 | |
| 1.02M | 37.6% | 37 | |
The Conservative and Unionist Party | 406.9k | 14.9% | 15 |
Liberal Party | 231.8k | 8.5% | 0 |
Why LON voters lean toward Fenula Streibl over Florence Webb. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Florence Webb's vote can be persuaded across to Fenula Streibl, and 20.0% of Fenula Streibl's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.