Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Farmer-Labor Party | 170.8k | 68.4% |
Betty JordanNPP Democratic Party | 78.8k | 31.6% |
Why Utah voters lean toward Betty Jordan over Aaliyah McKinney. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Aaliyah McKinney's vote can be persuaded across to Betty Jordan, and 20.0% of Betty Jordan's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.