Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Teresa AllenNPP Democratic Party | 144.7k | 52.7% |
Farmer-Labor Party | 130.1k | 47.3% |
Why Utah voters lean toward Teresa Allen over Aaliyah McKinney. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Aaliyah McKinney's vote can be persuaded across to Teresa Allen, and 20.0% of Teresa Allen's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.