Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 871.7k | 83.7% | 8 | |
Laura WellsNPP Farmer-Labor Party | 170.2k | 16.3% | 0 |
Why Louisiana voters lean toward Gavin Duffy over Laura Wells. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Laura Wells's vote can be persuaded across to Gavin Duffy, and 20.0% of Gavin Duffy's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.