/New York
1954 New York House Race · 43 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Final seat allocation
Sean Oppenheimer won 22 of 43 seats
Sean Oppenheimer22 seats
Tamaki Suoh21 seats
Final Results6.46M votes cast · 49 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.30M | 51.1% | 22 | |
| 3.16M | 48.9% | 21 |
Persuasion Drivers
NYWhy New York voters lean toward Sean Oppenheimer over Tamaki Suoh. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.5 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Tamaki Suoh's vote can be persuaded across to Sean Oppenheimer, and 20.0% of Sean Oppenheimer's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Sean OppenheimerTamaki Suoh