Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
The economy's push on the incumbent party's national vote
Scale runs from -8 to +8 pts. This shift is already inside the vote totals.
Seeking a 3rd consecutive term. The penalty side is scaled x1.25.
Read on turn 432.
Why a candidate is ahead or behind, broken into named factors. This is already inside the vote totals.
Partisan-lean baseline for WV. Each party's share is the slow-moving registered-voter influence, not a vote-share guarantee. Voters still need persuasion to turn out and vote with their lean.
The movable figure is the share of each party's own vote that campaigning can shift in one cycle. A large lean means a large starting base and a small movable slice.
Why WV voters lean toward Lyndon B. Johnson over Vladimir Iskra. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Vladimir Iskra's vote can be persuaded across to Lyndon B. Johnson, and 20.0% of Lyndon B. Johnson's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.
530 Electoral Votes · 57.0% Popular Vote
| # | Candidate | Running Mate | EV | Vote % | Votes | Fav | NPI | Cash | CS | Endorsements |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic PartyWinner | Lee Radziwill | 530 | 57.0% | 165.48M | 83% | 1.1K | — | — | 18 |
| 2 | Vladimir Iskra Moralistic Corporatist Party of the United States | Napoleon Hill | 0 | 13.6% | 39.49M | 82% | 256 | — | — | 4 |
| 3 | D Deprince Farmer-Labor Party | John Johnson | 0 | 23.4% | 68.08M | 61% | 361 | — | — | 7 |
| 4 | James Estes Kefauver Constitutional Union Party | Martin Luther King Jr | 0 | 6.0% | 17.39M | 79% | 764 | — | — | 3 |
All 50 states + DC · Click column headers to sort
State | EV↓ | Winner | Margin | Vote Share | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York(NY) | 42 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +9.2% | 44.7% | 26.52M |
California(CA) | 35 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +32.8% | 62.2% | 23.24M |
Pennsylvania(PA) | 29 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +11.3% | 44.9% | 17.62M |
Texas(TX) | 28 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +44.3% | 68.0% | 17.36M |
Illinois(IL) | 27 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +29.5% | 53.0% | 16.94M |
Ohio(OH) | 26 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +7.8% | 42.6% | 16.66M |
Michigan(MI) | 23 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +32.0% | 61.7% | 14.68M |
New Jersey(NJ) | 16 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +34.2% | 62.8% | 9.84M |
Indiana(IN) | 14 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +28.5% | 52.2% | 8.37M |
Massachusetts(MA) | 14 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +37.4% | 64.1% | 8.50M |
North Carolina(NC) | 14 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +55.7% | 73.3% | 7.93M |
Virginia(VA) | 13 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +23.3% | 50.8% | 6.61M |
Georgia(GA) | 12 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +18.7% | 51.2% | 6.53M |
Missouri(MO) | 12 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +27.8% | 59.5% | 6.05M |
Tennessee(TN) | 12 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +10.8% | 45.3% | 5.80M |
Wisconsin(WI) | 12 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +39.8% | 65.8% | 7.63M |
Alabama(AL) | 10 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +7.9% | 46.2% | 5.40M |
Florida(FL) | 10 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +9.2% | 40.8% | 5.67M |
Kentucky(KY) | 10 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +39.4% | 65.1% | 4.55M |
Louisiana(LA) | 10 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +47.5% | 63.8% | 5.61M |
Minnesota(MN) | 10 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +31.1% | 61.3% | 5.84M |
Washington(WA) | 10 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +32.1% | 61.9% | 4.76M |
Iowa(IA) | 9 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +48.4% | 70.0% | 4.51M |
Maryland(MD) | 9 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +13.4% | 41.3% | 4.54M |
Connecticut(CT) | 8 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +39.8% | 64.9% | 4.17M |
Mississippi(MS) | 8 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +37.2% | 63.5% | 3.59M |
Oklahoma(OK) | 8 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +47.7% | 69.6% | 4.11M |
South Carolina(SC) | 8 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +59.6% | 75.3% | 4.12M |
Arkansas(AR) | 7 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +50.4% | 70.8% | 3.15M |
Kansas(KS) | 7 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +34.2% | 62.9% | 3.32M |
West Virginia(WV) | 7 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +0.4% | 35.9% | 2.55M |
Colorado(CO) | 6 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +34.3% | 63.0% | 3.00M |
Oregon(OR) | 6 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +30.6% | 61.2% | 3.02M |
Arizona(AZ) | 5 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +26.4% | 58.6% | 1.65M |
Nebraska(NE) | 5 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +41.1% | 66.1% | 2.23M |
Idaho(ID) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +36.8% | 64.1% | 1.23M |
Maine(ME) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +39.3% | 65.4% | 1.53M |
Montana(MT) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +35.9% | 63.7% | 1.14M |
New Hampshire(NH) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +27.6% | 59.2% | 979.0k |
New Mexico(NM) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +42.7% | 67.0% | 1.58M |
North Dakota(ND) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +38.2% | 64.8% | 1.04M |
Rhode Island(RI) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +44.3% | 67.4% | 1.53M |
South Dakota(SD) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +35.9% | 63.7% | 1.12M |
Utah(UT) | 4 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +40.8% | 66.0% | 1.73M |
Delaware(DE) | 3 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +33.8% | 62.4% | 760.9k |
Nevada(NV) | 3 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +32.4% | 61.3% | 420.8k |
Vermont(VT) | 3 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +31.1% | 61.1% | 654.9k |
Wyoming(WY) | 3 | Lyndon B. Johnson | +43.2% | 67.4% | 649.2k |