Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 827.2k | 58.7% | |
Elena JordanNPP Farmer-Labor Party | 583.1k | 41.3% |
Why Missouri voters lean toward Elena Jordan over Lee Radziwill. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Lee Radziwill's vote can be persuaded across to Elena Jordan, and 20.0% of Elena Jordan's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.