Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 1.24M | 82.3% | |
| 266.6k | 17.7% |
Why Missouri voters lean toward Lee Radziwill over Constance. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Constance's vote can be persuaded across to Lee Radziwill, and 20.0% of Lee Radziwill's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.3 pts of that movable slice.