/Vermont
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1953 Vermont State Senate Race · 30 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Final seat allocation
Matthew Graham won 20 of 30 seats
Matthew Graham20 seats
Samantha Lombardi10 seats
Final Results142.2k votes cast · 25 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
 Farmer-Labor Party | 97.0k | 68.2% | 20 |
 Democratic Party | 45.2k | 31.8% | 10 |
Persuasion Drivers
VTWhy Vermont voters lean toward Samantha Lombardi over Matthew Graham. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment-0.1 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Matthew Graham's vote can be persuaded across to Samantha Lombardi, and 20.0% of Samantha Lombardi's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Matthew GrahamSamantha Lombardi