/Vermont
1954 Vermont State Senate Race · 30 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Final seat allocation
Matthew Graham won 18 of 30 seats
Matthew Graham18 seats
Samantha Lombardi12 seats
Final Results142.8k votes cast · 49 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
 Farmer-Labor Party | 85.4k | 59.8% | 18 |
 Democratic Party | 57.4k | 40.2% | 12 |
Persuasion Drivers
VTWhy Vermont voters lean toward Matthew Graham over Samantha Lombardi. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.1 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Samantha Lombardi's vote can be persuaded across to Matthew Graham, and 20.0% of Matthew Graham's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Matthew GrahamSamantha Lombardi