/LIM
1954 LIM Dáil Race · 16 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Final Results145.0k votes cast · 25 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 Dermot FlynnNPP Fine Gael | 51.5k | 35.5% |
 Tadhg FoleyNPP Labour | 46.3k | 31.9% |
 Fianna Fáil | 24.6k | 17.0% |
 Fianna Fáil | 22.6k | 15.6% |
Persuasion Drivers
LIMWhy LIM voters lean toward Eoin McCarthy over Dermot Flynn. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.7 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Dermot Flynn's vote can be persuaded across to Eoin McCarthy, and 20.0% of Eoin McCarthy's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Dermot FlynnTadhg FoleyEoin McCarthyCillian Phelan