/MID
1954 MID Dáil Race · 11 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Final Results57.9k votes cast · 25 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 Fine Gael | 18.8k | 32.4% |
 Labour | 17.6k | 30.4% |
 Fianna Fáil | 10.9k | 18.7% |
 Ciara WhelanNPP Fianna Fáil | 10.7k | 18.5% |
Persuasion Drivers
MIDWhy MID voters lean toward Pearse Connolly over Cillian McKenna. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.9 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Cillian McKenna's vote can be persuaded across to Pearse Connolly, and 20.0% of Pearse Connolly's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.9 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Cillian McKennaBridget McKennaPearse ConnollyCiara Whelan