Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Maeve MooneyNPP Labour | 52.5k | 28.4% |
Ruairi QuinnNPP Fianna Fáil | 35.6k | 19.3% |
Eoin MurphyNPP Fine Gael | 33.4k | 18.1% |
Cathal DoyleNPP Fianna Fáil | 32.6k | 17.6% |
Enda DalyNPP Fine Gael | 30.6k | 16.6% |
Why COR voters lean toward Ruairi Quinn over Maeve Mooney. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Maeve Mooney's vote can be persuaded across to Ruairi Quinn, and 20.0% of Ruairi Quinn's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.